Uncertain
From 11 verified experts:
Michael Wehner has answered Near Certain
An expert from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Climatology
Yes, for a variety of reasons. First and more importantly, let's get real. It seems highly unlikely that the drastic emissions reductions required to stabilize the climate to 1.5 will be palatable to the governments of the high carbon emitting countries. Second, if we ever get to zero carbon emissions, we would also have zero sulfate aerosol emissions. These particles mask about 0.3C of warming that we would otherwise already have. This is partly offset by zero methane emissions that would allow existing methane to gradually oxidize into less potent carbon dioxide. And of course, the ocean time scales are long and will continue to warm by a few tenths of a degree C after zero emissions. But as the planet is already at 1.1C above preindustrial temperatures, I see no practical way to limit global warming to 1.5C
Disclosure
Opinions are my own and not necessarily those of the US Department of Energy, the University of California or the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Answered over 3 years ago
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Michael F. Wehner
Michael F. Wehner is a
senior staff scientist
in the Computational
Research Division at
the Lawrence
Berkeley National
Laborat... Read more